Space Weather


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3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Nov 21 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 21-Nov 23 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 21-Nov 23 2024
Nov 21Nov 22Nov 23
00-03UT1.672.002.33
03-06UT1.331.673.00
06-09UT1.332.332.33
09-12UT1.331.002.00
12-15UT1.331.331.33
15-18UT1.331.671.33
18-21UT1.673.001.67
21-00UT1.673.002.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 21-Nov 23 2024
Nov 21Nov 22Nov 23
S1 or greater5%5%5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 20 2024 1948 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 21-Nov 23 2024
Nov 21Nov 22Nov 23
R1-R250%50%50%
R3 or greater10%10%10%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) and a slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) events 21-23 Nov.


SOHO EIT 304
image-space-eit-304.jpg 		SOHO EIT 284
image-space-eit-284.jpg 		SDO/HMI Continuum
image-space-eit-284.jpg

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Northern Hemisphere Aurora
image-space-aurora-north.php 		Southern Hemisphere Aurora
image-space-aurora-south.php

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Latest LASCO Solar Corona
image-space-solar-corona.php
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). 		Real-Time Solar Wind
image-space-solar-wind
Real-time solar wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.


solar101vhf.php
solargraph.php

Space weather images and information (excluded from copyright):

NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
SOHO (ESA & NASA)

Space Weather links:

3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

Space weather scripts courtesy of Mike Challis at Long Beach Weather.
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast text formatting by Jeremy Dyde at Jerbils Weather.
Additional features by Martin at Hebrides Weather and Ken True at Saratoga Weather.