Space Weather


3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 May 25 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 25-May 27 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 25-May 27 2024
May 25May 26May 27

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 25-May 27 2024
May 25May 26May 27
S1 or greater10%10%5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 24 2024 2025 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 25-May 27 2024
May 25May 26May 27
R3 or greater10%10%5%

Rationale: On 25-26 May, R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance of R3 (Strong) radio blackouts, due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3679. The likelihood decreases to just a chance for R1 (Minor) blackouts on 27 May as Region 3679 rotates beyond the western limb.

SDO/HMI Continuum

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Northern Hemisphere Aurora
Southern Hemisphere Aurora

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).
Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-time solar wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.


Space weather images and information (excluded from copyright):

NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

Space Weather links:

3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

Space weather scripts courtesy of Mike Challis at Long Beach Weather.
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast text formatting by Jeremy Dyde at Jerbils Weather.
Additional features by Martin at Hebrides Weather and Ken True at Saratoga Weather.