Space Weather


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3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2021 Sep 25 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 25-Sep 27 2021 is 6 (NOAA Scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 25-Sep 27 2021
Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27
00-03UT325 (G1)
03-06UT326 (G2)
06-09UT314
09-12UT214
12-15UT124
15-18UT143
18-21UT243
21-00UT25 (G1)3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) conditions on 26 Sep and G1-G2 (Minor - Moderate) conditions on 27 Sep are likely in response to anticipated influence from a positive polarity CH HSS with potential transient influence on 27 Sep.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 25-Sep 27 2021
Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27
S1 or greater1%1%1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 25-Sep 27 2021
Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27
R1-R25%5%5%
R3 or greater1%1%1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.


SOHO EIT 304
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SOHO EIT 284
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Mauna Loa
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The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Northern Hemisphere Aurora
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Southern Hemisphere Aurora
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Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Latest LASCO Solar Corona
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Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).
Real-Time Solar Wind
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Real-time solar wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.


solar101vhf.php
solargraph.php

Space weather images and information (excluded from copyright):

NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA)

Space Weather links:

3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

Space weather scripts courtesy of Mike Challis at Long Beach Weather.
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast text formatting by Jeremy Dyde at Jerbils Weather.
Additional features by Martin at Hebrides Weather and Ken True at Saratoga Weather.