Area Forecast Discussion

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National Weather Service - San Joaquin Valley / Hanford, CA
Issued: Thursday, March 5 2026 - 9:46 PM PST

KEY MESSAGES...

1. An elevated fire risk existed for eastern Kern and Tulare Counties Friday through Sunday.

2. Strong winds and gusts are expected through Sunday in the Tehachapi Mountains, Mojave Slopes, and Mojave Desert.

3. A warming trend is expected this weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION... An inside slider trough is expected to break off from the main flow and move in from the northeast tonight into Saturday, leading to strong winds across the mountainous regions of our CWA and elevated winds for the rest of the area. These strong winds are expected to be 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph over the peaks above 8000 feet for the Sierra Nevada and for the highest peaks of the Tehachapi Range. The Mojave Desert may also see wind gusts upwards of 70 mph starting Friday evening into Saturday evening.

The direction of these winds are coming in from the northeast over the Sierras, becoming a weak Mono wind downsloping into the Valley. This will also lead to lowered relative humidities in those areas as the air warms and dries on the way down. This will also lead to elevated fire risk for eastern Tulare and Kern Counties has they will see the strongest winds and the most drying from said winds, though moist fuels keep the fire risk from rising further.

After this cut-off trough moves out of our area, a ridge is expected to build in over the southwest, leading to above normal temperatures and little likelihood for rainfall. This pattern is likely to continue through the next week and into the next two weeks, as the CLimate Prediction Center maintains above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for our CWA through Day 14.

AVIATION... VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Gusty northwesterly winds around 25 kt expected in the northern end of the valley through 3Z gradually slowing to prevailing 5-10kt variable wind by 7Z.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None.

CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for CAZ333-334-337>339. Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST Saturday for CAZ323-326-328-330- 331.