National Weather Service - Discussion

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Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service - San Joaquin Valley / Hanford, CA
Issued: Thursday, October 6 2022 - 1:54 AM PDT

SYNOPSIS... Above average temperatures through Sunday before a major cooldown to the upper 70s by next Thursday. Dry conditions will also continue into next week.

DISCUSSION... A ridge of high pressure currently is sitting over California and Nevada. This ridge is bringing warmer dry air aloft to our area which will keep temperatures 6 to 10 degrees above average through the weekend. Both the GEFS and European model ensembles are in agreement that the ridge will start to move back to the Pacific Coast and over the ocean as a trough slides in Monday through Wednesday. Both models however differentiate as to how strong the trough will be and the positioning of the trough. By Tuesday night, the European model has the center of the trough being over the Great Basin while the GEFS has the center over the San Luis Obispo Coast. However, the model ensembles and the model blends currently have no rain in the forecast for the San Joaquin Valley.

The trough next week will also bring cooler temperatures to Yosemite, Kings Canyon and Sequoia National Parks. The overnight low temperatures will fall below 40 degrees mid-week. With the trough moving in, there will be slight chances of snow every afternoon starting Sunday in the higher elevations.

On the probability side, Fresno, Lemoore, and Hanford have the highest probabilities in the San Joaquin Valley of high temperatures of at least 95 degrees. All three cities have between 30 and 45 percent chance this afternoon, between 20 and 40 percent chance tomorrow, and between 40 and 55 on Saturday. Saturday has the highest probability of temperatures of at least 95 degrees for many locations of the Central Valley. On the flip side, the chances of overnight lows below 50 degrees is below 20 percent for Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across Central California for at least the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 10/05/2022 14:27 EXPIRES: 10/06/2022 23:59 On Thursday October 6 2022... Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Fresno... Kern and Tulare Counties... And Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information an/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.