National Weather Service - Discussion

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Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service - San Joaquin Valley / Hanford, CA
Issued: Thursday, June 8 2023 - 2:07 AM PDT

SYNOPSIS... The low pressure system impacting our county warning area is slowly shifting east out of the county warning area, but will be replaced by a second low pressure system on Sunday. These two systems will bring continued chances of afternoon and night thunderstorms and lower than seasonal temperatures through Tuesday of next week. Following Tuesday, a ridge will begin to build over the area, bringing back higher temperatures and drier conditions.

DISCUSSION... The first of a pair of low pressure systems to impact our county warning area through the weekend is beginning to move east and out of the area. This eastward motion will also bring afternoon and night thunderstorm chances to eastern Kern, Tulare, and the Sierra Nevada mountains and foothills tonight. These thunderstorms have the potential for cloud to ground lightning, isolated heavy rainfall rates, high winds, and hail, so make sure to be weather aware if you are in the areas at risk for thunderstorms. Temperatures throughout the county warning area will also remain below seasonably average, with high temperatures projected to be 6-8 degrees below what is normally seen at this time of year.

As this first low pressure system moves out of the area, there will be a short break and temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday before the second system begins to move in and take its place. This will bring the same lowered temperatures and afternoon and night thunderstorm chances to Kern, Tulare, Kings, and Fresno counties, as well as the Sierra mountains and foothills Sunday through Tuesday. These conditions will continue through Tuesday, after which temperatures will rise to above 90 degrees for much of the San Joaquin Valley and dry conditions will mostly prevail alongside some scattered precipitation.

AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through at least the next 24 hours. MVFR or lower conditions are likely in and near any thunderstorm this afternoon and this evening.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 06/07/2023 14:38 EXPIRES: 06/08/2023 23:59 None.

CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.