Area Forecast Discussion

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National Weather Service - San Joaquin Valley / Hanford, CA
Issued: Saturday, February 22 2025 - 11:04 AM PST

KEY MESSAGES...

1. Dry conditions will prevail through the middle of next week as high pressure dominates.

2. There is a high probability for a warming trend across the region this weekend with above average temperatures continuing through next week. A few record high maximum temperatures may be broken.

3. The Climate Prediction Center is indicating a 70 to 80 percent chance for above normal temepratures in the 6 to 10 day period and a 33 to 50 percent chance for above normal temperatures in the 8 to 14 day period.

4. There is a low to moderate probability (25 to 50 percent) for measureable rainfall late next week as a system moves off the California coast.

DISCUSSION... An upper level area of high pressure has built in over central California and will remain in place over the region through the weekend and into early next week. The ridge is weakening the flow aloft, resulting in stagnant air propagating over the area and as a result, a warming trend is expected over the next few days. The following are probabilities to exceed 75 degrees for various locations across the San Joaquin Valley.

Saturday Sunday Monday Bakersfield 25% 60% 75% Coalinga 10% 60% 75% Fresno 4% 20% 30% Hanford 10% 40% 50% Madera 5% 25% 20% Merced 5% 20% 10% Visalia 5% 25% 30%

In addition, the following are probabilities to exceed 70 degrees in the foothill areas of the Sierra Nevada.

Saturday Sunday Monday Lake Isabella 40% 85% 90% Mariposa 0% 25% 35% Oakhurst 2% 40% 55% Three Rivers 70% 90% 90%

With stagnating air aloft due to the aforementioned ridge and mostly clear skies overnight, theres a chance for patchy dense fog to show up in the central San Joaquin Valley during the early morning next week. The greatest chance for the return of foggy conditions is Tuesday morning as a slight breakdown of the ridge and a weak zonal flow pattern will bring increased surface moisture to the valley. The resulting increase in dew point temperatures is expected to raise surface relative humidity near 100 percent. This slight change in upper level flow will also bring about cooler, albeit still above normal, temperatures to the region Tuesday afternoon, with less than a 50 percent chance to exceed 70 degrees for most of the area.

A stronger upper level ridging pattern is favorable to build in on Wednesday, bringing back warmer temperatures to the region. Afternoon highs are anticipated to be around ten degrees above normal in the San Joaquin Valley, and fifteen degrees above normal in the mountains, foothills, and desert areas. There is a 60 to near 100 percent chance to exceed 70 degrees in the valley on Wednesday, with a 40 to 90 percent chance to exceed 75, with the greatest probabilities in the southern valley areas. These warmer conditions will continue on Thursday.

Model cluster analysis continues to trend towards an upper level low pressure system approaching the California coast late Thursday through Friday. Cyclonic flow around the system will bring winds from the south to the region, with small increases to moisture. As of now, there is only a 25 to 50 percent chance for 24 hour precipitation greater than 0.01 inches across central Californias valley and foothill areas on Friday. After a weak ridge builds in after this system on Saturday, there are indications for a broader trough to pass through the region late in the weekend to early next week. The wider system has the potential to grab additional moisture from the Pacific. There is a 50 to 70 percent chance from the National Blend of Models for measurable precipitation each day between Sunday, March 2nd and Tuesday, March 4th.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across interior central California for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 02/21/2025 12:45 EXPIRES: 02/22/2025 23:59 On Saturday February 22 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Madera Counties. Burning Discouraged in Merced and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.