Area Forecast Discussion

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National Weather Service - San Joaquin Valley / Hanford, CA
Issued: Wednesday, November 12 2025 - 1:59 AM PST

KEY MESSAGES...

1. A significant storm system is expected to impact the region beginning early morning tomorrow, with moderate rainfall below 8000 feet and moderate to heavy snowfall above 8000 feet expected throughout the day. There is also the potential for thunderstorms that afternoon.

2. The system shifts south by Friday into Saturday, bringing potentially excessive rainfall to the Kern desert and mountains, the south Valley and into the southern Sierra Nevada foothills.

3. A second, colder system may bring additional precipitation to much of the region by Monday, with snow levels down to 5000 to 6000 feet.

DISCUSSION... An active week is ahead for the region, with a significant storm system crossing the region early tomorrow morning that is expected to bring moderate rainfall to the elevations below 8000 feet, and moderate to heavy snowfall above 8000 feet. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Wednesday night through Thursday night, upgraded from the previous Watch issued earlier this week. Snow totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected with up to 2 feet in the highest elevations of the mountains. Thee is also a Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of excessive rainfall for our northern-most counties and into the lower Sierra Nevada and foothills that day as well. There is also a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon as the dynamics with this cut- off may be able to fuel development along with afternoon heating.

The system is then expected to shift south by Friday and Saturday while remaining offshore, leading to more moisture coming in from the south and impacting the Kern County desert and mountains, as well as the southern-most Sierra Nevada and southern San Joaquin Valley. Another Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall has been issued for Friday in those areas, and a Slight Risk (at least 15%) has been issued for the same region on Saturday, mainly for Kern County and southern portions of Kings and Tulare Counties.

A second system may impact the region by Monday next week, with an open trough coming down from the north and pulling in cold air from Canada, leading to a cooler system and lowered snow levels. These levels are currently forecast to start at 6000 feet before dropping to around 5000 feet, meaning lower elevation snow for the Sierra Nevada. So far this system appears to be slightly drier than the one before it, but the precipitation may still be significant. This system is then expected to clear out by Tuesday afternoon, though this may change as the forecast is refined.

AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Wednesday November 12, 2025, No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings and Madera Counties. Burning Discouraged in Merced and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 7 AM PST Friday for CAZ337>339. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ300-301- 304-305-308-313. Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for CAZ323-326>331.