Area Forecast Discussion

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National Weather Service - San Joaquin Valley / Hanford, CA
Issued: Tuesday, May 26 2026 - 9:55 PM PDT

KEY MESSAGES... 1. Wind Advisory in effect 11 PM Monday to 11 AM Wednesday for Indian Wells Valley, Mojave Desert Slopes, and Mojave Desert.

2. Lake Wind Advisory in effect until 5 PM Wednesday for Kern River Valley, including Lake Isabella.

3. Cut-off low pressure system will lead to increased winds and potential for precipitation in the Sierra Nevada and the foothills, with snow levels around 7000 feet.

4. A slight chance for thunderstorms exists for Wednesday and Thursday along the Sierra Nevada crest.

5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION... Latest satellite imagery has the cutoff low sliding over the Bay Area with the radar picking up showers and small thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and foothills. As the low begins to settle over Central California on Wednesday, thunderstorm chances increase to 15 to 25 percent for the Sierra Nevada and foothills and 5 to 10 percent in the San Joaquin Valley. Winds also decrease on Wednesday for the Mojave Slopes and Desert with the Wind Advisories expiring.

The cutoff low will continue to persist on Thursday keeping things cool. However, thunderstorm chances remain the same as Wednesday for the Valley and Sierra Nevada. The instability and moisture also will lead to a 30 to 70 percent chance of 6 inches of snow or more above 7,500 feet through Wednesday evening. The Valley has a 10 to 25 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain or more on Wednesday and Thursday.

Thunderstorm chances diminish and temperatures climb Friday into the weekend as the cutoff low moves east and is picked up by a shortwave trough. A weak ridge with zonal flow will move in Friday through the weekend helping bring a return of 90s for June. While we are cooler, the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks favor a strong change with a 50 to 60 percent chance of above average temperatures.

AVIATION... 15 to 25 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada between 18Z Wednesday and 6Z Thursday. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevailing across interior central California for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None.

CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ337>339. Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ332.