Area Forecast Discussion

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National Weather Service - San Joaquin Valley / Hanford, CA
Issued: Saturday, May 25 2024 - 2:55 AM PDT

KEY MESSAGES...

1. Strong, gusty west winds are expected in the Kern County Desert and Mojave Desert Slopes this afternoon through Sunday morning.

2. A warming trend Sunday through Monday then temperatures hold through the remainder of the week around 5 degrees above normal.

3. Gust west winds expected Wednesday through Friday over the Mojave Slopes and Kern County Desert.

DISCUSSION...

The upper trough has moved over to the Great Basin early this morning leaving northwest flow in its wake. Another on the cool side day with temperatures 5 to 8 degrees below normal for the region. Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of 80*F north of Fresno is 30% to 45% today and 60% to 75% Fresno south. PoE of 85*F is less than 5% for the San Joaquin Valley. The Mojave Slopes again this evening have near 100% PoE of 45 mph. The PoE of 60 mph remains in the 20% to 30% range. Going to let the wind advisory expire later this morning and then issue the new wind advisory after.

Sunday the flow turns more westerly and upper level heights begin to rise for the region starting the rebound of temperatures. PoE of 85*F on Sunday improves to 25% to 40% north of the Fresno and 55% to 75% south of Fresno with normal highs right around 85 for the region. The desert wind relaxes for awhile staring Sunday evening.

Monday onshore westerly flow continues and temperatures tweak up even more. The PoE of 85*F is near 100% for most locations in the San Joaquin Valley. The PoE focus moves up to 90*F on the holiday with 40% to 65% north of the Fresno and Fresno south 61% to 81%. Over in the Kern County Desert PoE of 90 is near 100%.

Tuesday through next Saturday will hold with temperatures around 90. Tuesday the cluster analysis has fair confidence in the pattern and that is where it ends. Wednesday through Saturday is very low confidence in the pattern with a vast variety of forecast solutions. Everything from large scale trough over the west coast to a anomalously large ridge. The issue the confused mass of multiple upper low centers of Eastern Russia, Alaska, and Northwest Canada. The progression of this cluster to the east as one unit or several smaller waves is causing the problems. The view or opinion, with ultra low confidence, is that the multiple smaller waves solution that would bring above normal temperatures is the most likely solution for late May and early June.

AVIATION... VFR. Only issue will be surface winds over the Kern County Desert through 14Z and then again 00Z-14Z on Sunday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 05/24/2024 14:49 EXPIRES: 05/25/2024 23:59 None.

CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ337>339.