Area Forecast Discussion

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National Weather Service - San Joaquin Valley / Hanford, CA
Issued: Monday, January 13 2025 - 2:57 AM PST

KEY MESSAGES...

1. Dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures will prevail this week.

2. Widespread freezing temperatures are forecast across mainly rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley this morning through Wednesday morning. There is up to a 65 percent probability for low temperatures of 32 degrees or below in the rural areas. A Freeze Warning is in effect from late tonight through Wednesday morning.

3. Strong northeast to east winds are forecast across eastern Kern County on Today and Tuesday. There is up to a 95 percent probability for wind gusts of 45 mph or higher at Mojave. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM Tuesday.

4. Latest CPC Outlooks give a 50 to 70 percent chance of below average temperatures and a 33 to 50 percent chance of below average precipitation.

DISCUSSION...

An upper level wave is slide south along the Pacific Coast Highway early this morning bringing down some high cloudiness over the region. This is helping to keep temperatures up a little higher than expected. However, in rural areas many locations are below freezing already. Elsewhere winds are slowly increasing as expected across the Kern County Desert and Mojave Slopes this morning. The place to watch is Grapevine Peak where gusts to 40 mph are already occurring.

Afternoon maximum temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal on average this week across the San Joaquin Valley. Today and Tuesday the probability to exceed 60 degrees ranges from 20 to 60 percent across the valley with Bakersfield with the best probability. Wednesday and Thursday that probability increases to 55 to 90 percent across the valley. On the other end with overnight Minimums the range is expected to be 5 degrees below normal with threats of freezes. The probability of dropping below 32 in rural areas ranges from 25 to 65 percent this morning through Wednesday morning then down to 10 to 35 percent for Thursday and Friday. This is thanks to an upper level ridge that extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean across Central and Northern California into the Great Basin as the short wave from this morning becomes a cut off to the southwest of the Channel Islands.

The Kern County Desert and Mojave Slope wind is being aided by high pressure over the northern Great Basin with low pressure over the Channel Islands creating the breeze for the region. This is creating up a to 90 percent probability today and tomorrow for greater than 40 mph wind gusts. The advisory possibly will need extension later this morning into the Grapevine if the gusty southeast winds continue for the pass. After Tuesday it will remain breezy at times for the region however not expecting gusts to advisory level as the high pressure moves over the Central Rockies.

The long range CPC guidance out to 14 days is not a snow lovers dream for the High Sierra with below normal precipitation expected and below normal temperatures. The persistent upper ridging in the far eastern Pacific is keeping all moisture flowing well north of the region.

AVIATION...

12Z.

VFR is the rule from 12Z-09Z with the upper wave moving to the west and easterly wind downsloping off the foothills keeping the Tule Fog away. AFT 09Z there is a 40 percent probability of MVFR VSBY for the San Joaquin Valley.

VFR for the Sierra, Foothills, and Kern County Desert.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 01/12/2025 12:48 EXPIRES: 01/13/2025 23:59 On Monday January 13 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ338. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ302-305-306- 309>311-313-316.