Space Weather


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3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 May 16 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 16-May 18 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 16-May 18 2024
May 16May 17May 18
00-03UT3.672.332.33
03-06UT3.001.331.67
06-09UT2.671.672.00
09-12UT2.331.672.33
12-15UT2.002.332.33
15-18UT2.332.332.33
18-21UT2.333.332.33
21-00UT2.334.332.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 16-May 18 2024
May 16May 17May 18
S1 or greater99%15%10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are expected on 16 May due to the flare potential from now departed Region 3664. Probabilities drop to a slight chance on 17-18 May from the remaining active regions on the Suns visible disk.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 15 2024 0837 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 16-May 18 2024
May 16May 17May 18
R1-R275%40%40%
R3 or greater40%10%10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are expected on 16 May due to the flare potential from now departed Region 3664. Probabilities drop to a chance on 17-18 May from the remaining active regions on the Suns visible disk.


SOHO EIT 304
image-space-eit-304.jpg 		SOHO EIT 284
image-space-eit-284.jpg 		SDO/HMI Continuum
image-space-eit-284.jpg

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Northern Hemisphere Aurora
image-space-aurora-north.php 		Southern Hemisphere Aurora
image-space-aurora-south.php

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Latest LASCO Solar Corona
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Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). 		Real-Time Solar Wind
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Real-time solar wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.


solar101vhf.php
solargraph.php

Space weather images and information (excluded from copyright):

NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
SOHO (ESA & NASA)

Space Weather links:

3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

Space weather scripts courtesy of Mike Challis at Long Beach Weather.
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast text formatting by Jeremy Dyde at Jerbils Weather.
Additional features by Martin at Hebrides Weather and Ken True at Saratoga Weather.